Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

Finnish Maritime Personnel's Conceptions on Safety Management and Safety Culture

The purpose of this thesis is to explore Finnish maritime personnel’s conceptions of safety management and its relationship with the concept of safety culture. In addition, the aim is to evaluate the impact of the ISM Code on the prevailing safety culture in the Finnish shipping business. A total of 94 interviewees and seven Finnish shipping companies were involved in this study. Thematic interviews were applied as the main research method for the study. The results were analysed qualitatively. The results indicate that maritime safety culture can simultaneously demonstrate features of integration, differentiation and ambiguity. Basically, maritime personnel have a positive attitude towards safety management systems since they consider safety management beneficial and essential in general. However, the study also found considerable criticism among the interviewees. The interviewed maritime personnel did not criticise the ISM Code as such, yet they criticised the way the ISM Code has been applied in practise. In order to understand the multiple perspectives of safety culture more comprehensively, multiple theoretical perspectives and methodological approaches are needed. This study indicates that safety culture and the impacts of the ISM Code should not be unambiguously studied solely quantitative methods or qualitative methods. By examining safety culture from several methodological and theoretical perspectives, one may gain a more versatile and holistic overview of safety culture.